Key Points
- Only 10.5% of U.S. students attend a district that has recovered to 2019 math and reading performance, according to CRPE’s 2026 report.
- Louisiana is the only state with average scores above 2019 levels in both math and reading.
- Since 2022, top-performing eighth graders gained 3 points in NAEP math while the bottom 10% lost 5.
The Center on Reinventing Public Education (CRPE) at Arizona State University released its fifth annual State of the American Student report in October 2026. Its verdict is blunt: six years after school closures, pandemic recovery has failed for most students.
Only 10.5% of students attend a district that has returned to 2019 performance in both math and reading, and Louisiana is the only state above 2019 levels in both subjects.
The decline started well before Covid, and the pandemic made it worse. CRPE director Robin Lake told The 74 that “things have been getting worse for a long while now.”
The report arrives as the Education Department hands K-12 programs to other agencies, which leaves states to carry most of the recovery work.
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Why It Matters
Lost learning will likely become lost income for these students. Research cited in the CRPE report projects that pandemic learning loss will cut students’ lifetime earnings by 2% in the least affected states. In the hardest-hit states, the projected loss reaches 9%. That hit lands as more teens are already weighing work over college.
The students hit hardest are already leaving K-12. CRPE notes that nearly half of the students whose schooling was disrupted have moved on to college or the workforce, often without a chance to make up lost time.
Colleges have noticed too, and a growing list of schools requires SAT or ACT scores again. That matters because high school grade inflation makes a strong GPA harder to trust.
Where Recovery Stands In 2026
Average scores hide how unevenly recovery has played out. The CRPE data show the strongest students pulling ahead while struggling students fall further behind.
In 2024, 34% of eighth graders scored below Basic in reading, the largest share since NAEP began tracking that measure 32 years ago.
- The gap between top and bottom students is growing. Since 2022, the top 10% of eighth graders gained 3 points in NAEP math, while the bottom 10% lost 5.
- Much of the drop predates the pandemic. National achievement began falling in 2013, and pre-pandemic trends alone would have predicted 47% of the post-pandemic decline in eighth-grade math.
- Attendance hasn’t bounced back anywhere. Chronic absence rose from 15% before the pandemic to 23% in 2024-25, and no state has returned to pre-pandemic attendance.
- States are drifting apart. After two decades of narrowing, the spread between state NAEP scores in eighth grade has widened since 2019. An average Mississippi eighth grader is nearly two and a half years ahead of an average West Virginia eighth grader on demographically adjusted math scores.
- Younger students show some progress. Fourth-grade math variation between states returned to 2019 levels in 2024, and NWEA researchers say reading recovery has begun in grades K-8.
- Public confidence has collapsed. Gallup found 51% of adults satisfied with public education in 2019, compared with 32% in 2026.
| Measure | Finding |
|---|---|
| Students In Fully Recovered Districts | 10.5% (math and reading back to 2019 levels) |
| States Above 2019 In Math And Reading | 1 (Louisiana) |
| Top 10% Of 8th Graders: Math Change Since 2022 | +3 NAEP points |
| Bottom 10% Of 8th Graders: Math Change Since 2022 | -5 NAEP points |
| Chronically Absent Students | 15% before the pandemic, 23% in 2024-25 |
| States Back To Pre-Pandemic Attendance | 0 |
| Projected Lifetime Earnings Loss | 2% to 9%, depending on state |
| Adults Satisfied With Public Education | 51% in 2019, 32% in 2026 |
How States Are Responding
Most states lack a clear plan. CRPE found only 13 states with a specific statewide goal for student learning, while 11 states have published no goal at all. That matters more now that the Trump administration wants to return education authority to the states.
Math is the weak spot nearly everywhere. Some 43 states have passed Science of Reading laws, but only 18 have passed a math law. CRPE also found that 37 states aren’t fully implementing any of ExcelinEd’s 11 recommended math policies.
That leaves a weak base for students headed to college or paying for trade school in technical fields.
How This Connects
Families don’t have to wait for their state to act. Since July 2025, 529 plans can pay for K-12 tutoring, testing fees, and curriculum, and the annual K-12 limit rose to $20,000 starting in 2026. And starting next year, 30 states have already opted into the new Education Freedom Tax Credit to provide more school choice.
Parents can start with their own child’s data. Ask the school for state test results and benchmark scores such as NWEA MAP, since a report card grade alone may not reveal a gap. Families who decide to pay for outside help can use 529 funds for private K-12 costs up to that annual limit.
A Coverdell education savings account can also cover K-12 costs, though its $2,000 annual contribution cap limits how far it stretches.
For teens leaning toward a trade instead, the new Workforce Pell Grant now covers short job-training programs that can lead to a paycheck faster.
What’s Next
CRPE plans a spring 2027 report that will score specific state policies against research on effective improvement strategies.
The federal school choice credit also begins in 2027, as the Education Department keeps shrinking and states absorb more of its work. Watch whether any state beyond Louisiana posts full recovery on the next round of NAEP results.
Editor: Colin Graves
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Robert Farrington is the founder of The College Investor and is widely recognized as one of the nation’s leading voices on student loan debt and saving for college. He holds an MBA from UC San Diego Rady School of Management and has spent over 15 years researching, writing, and advising on student loans, 529 plans, financial aid programs, and saving and investing for young professionals.
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