Key Points
- The average tax refund is $3,742 as of Feb. 27 - up 10.6% from $3,382 at the same point in 2025, according to the IRS.
- New deductions from President Trump’s tax legislation (covering tips, overtime, seniors, and auto loan interest) are boosting refunds for eligible filers this season.
- This early data may change throughout the rest of tax season.
Tax refunds are running more than 10% larger this filing season, the IRS reported, with the average individual refund reaching $3,742. That's up from $3,382 at roughly the same point in 2025.
The increase is being driven in part by new deductions signed into law by President Donald Trump that are appearing on returns for the first time.
The IRS released its cumulative filing season statistics through Feb. 27, 2026, comparing them to the same period in 2025. The data covers roughly 51.5 million individual returns received out of approximately 164 million expected before the April 15 deadline.
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What The Numbers Show
The IRS has issued about 36.5 million refunds so far this season, totaling $136.6 billion — up 9.4% from $124.8 billion at this point in 2025. Though the total number of refunds issued has dipped slightly, down 1.1% from a year ago, the average dollar amount per refund has climbed sharply.
Among taxpayers who chose direct deposit, the numbers tell a similar story. The IRS processed 36.9 million direct deposit refunds totaling $138.1 billion — an 11.2% increase over the same period in 2025. The average direct deposit refund came to $3,739, up 8.8% from $3,436 last year.
Overall filing volume is slightly lower than a year ago. The IRS received about 51.5 million returns through Feb. 27, a 1.7% decline from the same period in 2025. E-filings submitted through tax professionals fell 2.7%, while self-prepared e-filings rose 1.1%.
It's interesting to see more taxpayers using tax software and preparing their own returns.
Trump's Tax Changes Are Driving The Increase In Tax Refunds
The increase in average refund size is mainly due to a set of new tax deductions. Congress approved four new above-the-line deductions: tip income, overtime pay, income earned by seniors, and auto loan interest.
Other changes are also factoring in. The cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT) was increased under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), potentially benefiting filers in high-tax states who itemize.
The standard deduction was raised, and the child tax credit became more generous for the 2025 tax year.
What This Means For Your Tax Bill
For most taxpayers, the new deductions are providing a meaningful but modest benefit — not a windfall. The average increase is $360.
But it's important to remember that tax refund size is not purely a function of tax law changes. How much a worker has withheld from each paycheck throughout the year plays a large role in whether a return results in a refund or a balance due — and how large that refund or bill turns out to be. Filers who adjusted their W-4 withholding after the new law passed may see different outcomes than those who did not.
Timing also plays a role in how the season’s averages look. Refund figures typically peak around mid-February. After that mid-February peak, the average tends to drift lower through Tax Day, as higher-income filers who often owe money complete their returns. If you're not expecting a tax refund, you're likely not filing early.
That pattern suggests the 10.6% year-over-year gap could narrow somewhat as more returns come in over the next six weeks.
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Editor: Colin Graves
Robert Farrington is the founder of The College Investor and is widely recognized as one of the nation’s leading voices on student loan debt and saving for college. He holds an MBA from UC San Diego Rady School of Management and has spent over 15 years researching, writing, and advising on student loans, 529 plans, financial aid programs, and saving and investing for young professionals.
Robert has been featured in the The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, NBC News, and Forbes, where he has been a regular personal finance contributor for over a decade. His work combines both professional expertise and personal experience – he successfully navigated his own student loan repayment journey and has helped thousands of readers do the same.
He is committed to making the intersection of personal finance and education transparent and accessible. You can learn more about Robert on the About Page or on his personal site RobertFarrington.com.