College students graduating this spring expect to earn $80,004 one year after graduation. The actual average is $56,153 — a $23,851 gap that has direct consequences for student loan repayment.
That finding comes from a Clever Real Estate survey of 769 undergraduates. The salary expectations gap shows up across every major surveyed and widens as students project further into their careers.
College students should be focused on their salary immediately after graduation - as that's when loan repayment and other life milestones begin.
Why It Matters: The $80,000 expectation isn't just optimistic - it's also the number students appear to be using when deciding how much student loan debt to take on. About 79% of bachelor's degree students expect to graduate with student loans, with the average borrower owing $25,670. When the paycheck comes in 30% smaller than planned, the repayment math collapses.
Furthermore, the average student loan debt is pushing nearly $40,000 for recent graduates - a huge amount more than expected.
And 40% of undergrads think it will take them 10 years or more to pay off their loans, while the data shows the average undergraduate takes over 17 years to repay their student loans.
By Major: No major surveyed got the number right. Education majors were the furthest off, expecting $75,186 against an actual $46,526 — a 62% overestimate. Nursing students expected $83,219 against an actual $63,000. Engineering students were closer but still overshot by 17%, expecting $92,452 against $78,731.
Journalism and communications majors had the most realistic expectations, missing the $60,793 average by just 7% — though they were also the most confident about landing a job quickly, with 44% expecting an offer at or before graduation.
The Exceptionalism Problem: Most students recognize the $56,153 average - they just don't think it applies to them. Around 73% of undergraduates said the figure aligns with or exceeds a typical starting salary. But 59% believe they personally deserve above-average pay because they work harder than their peers, and 51% say they deserve more because they're smarter. About 48% expect to skip entry-level roles entirely.
The salary they say they actually deserve: $84,316.
Cost of Living Issues: Even the inflated expectation isn't enough for many. About 32% of undergrads aren't confident $80,000 would let them live comfortably, and 33% specifically worry it wouldn't cover basic necessities. That concern has data behind it: it can take more than $80,000 to live in 41 of the 50 largest U.S. cities to live comfortably.
The mismatch is also reshaping how students view college itself. Around 46% say a college education isn't worth going into debt for, 35% call college "a scam," and 29% regret attending. Nearly half (43%) say if they could redo the decision, they'd prioritize buying a home over going to college.
How This Connects: The College Investor's long-standing rule for student loan borrowing is straightforward: never take on more debt than you expect to earn in your first year out of school.
The Clever survey shows why that rule needs to be stress-tested against real BLS and NACE salary data, not student guesswork. A future teacher borrowing $75,000 against a $75,186 expectation is actually borrowing 60%+ more than their first-year salary will support.
The College ROI Calculator on The College Investor lets students run that math before they sign the promissory note.
Common Questions
How should I decide how much student loan debt to take on if my salary expectations might be off?
Anchor your borrowing to realistic, data-backed salary estimates for your specific major rather than optimistic guesses, since surveys show new grads consistently overestimate their starting pay—and when in doubt, borrow less.
What is The College Investor's rule of thumb for how much student loan debt is "too much"?
The rule of thumb is to never borrow more in total—across all four years—than you expect to earn in your first year after graduation, which roughly keeps your monthly payments under 10% of your gross monthly income on a standard 10-year plan.
What is the actual average starting salary for recent college graduates compared to what students expect?
New college graduates overestimate starting salaries by nearly $24,000: the Class of 2025 expected around $101,500 on average while recent grads actually earned about $68,400, and the average starting salary for this year's crop of graduates is mostly higher across majors but still well below expectations.
How can I use real salary data instead of guesses when planning my student loans?
Look up the average starting salary for your intended major using sources like the NACE salary survey or the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then run those figures through a tool like The College Investor's "How Much Student Loan Debt Can You Afford" calculator to see whether your projected payments stay manageable.
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Editor: Colin Graves
Robert Farrington is the founder of The College Investor and is widely recognized as one of the nation’s leading voices on student loan debt and saving for college. He holds an MBA from UC San Diego Rady School of Management and has spent over 15 years researching, writing, and advising on student loans, 529 plans, financial aid programs, and saving and investing for young professionals.
Robert has been featured in the The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, NBC News, and Forbes, where he has been a regular personal finance contributor for over a decade. His work combines both professional expertise and personal experience – he successfully navigated his own student loan repayment journey and has helped thousands of readers do the same.
He is committed to making the intersection of personal finance and education transparent and accessible. You can learn more about Robert on the About Page or on his personal site RobertFarrington.com.