Federal student loan defaults are growing. The New York Fed’s latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit shows roughly 3.6 million borrowers entered default over the past two quarters (Q4 2025 and Q1 2026), the first major wave since the pandemic payment pause ended.
The figure looks smaller than what the U.S. Department of Education has reported, but the two agencies aren’t measuring the same thing. More on that below.
By The Numbers
- About 1 million federal student loan borrowers defaulted in Q4 2025.
- Another 2.6 million defaulted in Q1 2026.
- The share of student loan balances past due is back near 10%, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
- Total U.S. household debt rose $18 billion last quarter to $18.8 trillion.
- Average defaulted borrower age is 38.9, up from 36.4 before the pandemic.
- Credit scores for defaulted borrowers dropped 91 points on average (567 to 476).
Who Is Defaulting
The typical defaulter looks different than before the pandemic pause. Borrowers are older, with more weight in the 50-plus range, and most were not struggling before the pause. About 30% were current on their loans in 2019, and nearly half had no payment due. Only about 4% were already in default before 2020.
Defaults are also concentrated in the South. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina each have at least 10% of borrowers in default. No state was untouched: even the lowest-share states had at least 4% of borrowers default.
Why The NY Fed and FSA Numbers Don’t Match
Federal Student Aid reported 7.7 million borrowers in default with $180 billion in loans as of December 2025, an increase of about 2.5 million from September. The NY Fed reports roughly 3.6 million new defaults over the past two quarters. Both are correct as they measure different things.
- Stock vs. flow: FSA’s 7.7 million is a stock number, meaning every borrower currently classified as in default in ED’s servicing system, including longtime pre-pandemic defaulters. The NY Fed’s 3.6 million is a flow — borrowers whose default newly appeared on credit reports in the last two quarters.
- Different data sources: FSA pulls administrative data covering all ED-managed borrowers. The NY Fed uses Equifax credit report data extrapolated from a nationally representative sample.
- Reporting lag: ED reclassifies accounts as defaulted at 270 days delinquent, but loan servicers send the data to Equifax on their own timing, usually 30 days after the default happens. Expect the gap between the two data sets to narrow in coming quarters.
What's Next
A second wave of defaults could be coming. About 7 million borrowers are in forbearance under the now-defunct SAVE plan, which will be ending this summer. As they return to repayment, defaults could rise again roughly nine months after their first missed payment.
If borrowers don't choose a new repayment plan themselves, they will default into the standard plan. And if they don't make payments, they will begin the pathway to default.
FSA data also flags about 1.8 million borrowers already in late-stage delinquency and at risk of defaulting in the next six months.
Collections on defaulted federal loans is moving to the Treasury Department, and wage garnishments and other collection activity is expected to resume this fall.
When they resume, borrowers face wage garnishment of up to 15% of disposable pay, Treasury offsets of tax refunds, and Social Security offsets. A federal default stays on a credit report for seven years.
How This Connects
SAVE plan forbearance is ending this fall, and the Education Department is sending notices to more than 7 million borrowers to pick a new repayment plan or be auto-enrolled in the Standard Plan, which is historically the highest-payment option and a known driver of delinquency.
Borrowers in default still have options: loan rehabilitation, which takes nine on-time income-based payments, or consolidation, which can happen in 30-60 days on average..
Common Questions
What are the financial consequences of defaulting on a federal student loan?
A default can drop your credit score by roughly 90 points, stays on your credit report for seven years, and—once collections resume—exposes you to wage garnishment of up to 15% of disposable pay plus Treasury offsets of your tax refund and even Social Security benefits.
What options do borrowers have to get out of federal student loan default?
The two main paths are loan rehabilitation, which requires nine on-time income-based monthly payments, and consolidation, which can typically be completed in 30 to 60 days.
Why do the NY Fed and the Department of Education report such different default numbers — and which figure is correct?
Both are correct because they measure different things: the NY Fed's figure (about 1 million in Q4 2025 plus 2.6 million in Q1 2026) counts borrowers newly entering default during those quarters, while the Education Department's larger ~7.7 million reflects the total stock of borrowers currently in default.
What should SAVE plan borrowers expect now that forbearance is ending?
With SAVE forbearance ending this fall, the Education Department is notifying borrowers to choose a new repayment plan or risk being auto-enrolled in the Standard Plan—historically the highest-payment option—so researchers warn a second wave of defaults could follow if borrowers don't act.
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Editor: Colin Graves
Robert Farrington is the founder of The College Investor and is widely recognized as one of the nation’s leading voices on student loan debt and saving for college. He holds an MBA from UC San Diego Rady School of Management and has spent over 15 years researching, writing, and advising on student loans, 529 plans, financial aid programs, and saving and investing for young professionals.
Robert has been featured in the The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, NBC News, and Forbes, where he has been a regular personal finance contributor for over a decade. His work combines both professional expertise and personal experience – he successfully navigated his own student loan repayment journey and has helped thousands of readers do the same.
He is committed to making the intersection of personal finance and education transparent and accessible. You can learn more about Robert on the About Page or on his personal site RobertFarrington.com.