Stanford Study: Entry-Level Software Jobs Down Nearly 20% as AI Reshapes Hiring for College Grads

Nearly half of college students (47%, according to a Gallup and Lumina Foundation survey) have considered switching majors because of AI's impact on the job market. Their concern isn't misplaced: a Stanford University study found that entry-level software developer jobs have declined nearly 20% since 2022, and entry-level positions in other AI-exposed fields, such as customer service and accounting, are down 13%.

But the risk isn't spread evenly. AI is hitting some white-collar desk jobs hard while leaving skilled trades and high-touch professions largely untouched, a reversal of decades of automation displacing factory work first.

Here are the jobs at greatest risk from AI for college graduates, and the careers least likely to be affected.

Impact Of AI On Academic Majors

The number of students majoring in computer science has been affected by the fear of AI taking entry-level jobs in the field, much more so than other academic majors. With AI now able to write computer code, entry-level computer science jobs are increasingly at risk.

Undergraduate enrollment in computer science decreased in all University of California colleges in 2025, except at UCSD, which added an AI major. The 6% decrease in enrollment, coming after a 3% drop in 2024, may be due to changes in the tech industry, where AI coding abilities can substitute for jobs requiring entry level programming skills.

A Stanford University study finds that the impact of AI on aggregate employment is low, but may be affecting hiring for entry-level jobs. Recent graduates in software engineering are experiencing some difficulty in getting jobs. They are affected by AI systems that generate code. The Stanford study suggests a nearly 20% decline in entry-level software developer jobs since 2022, and a 13% decline in all entry-level AI-exposed jobs, such as customer service and accounting.

According to a Gallup and the Lumina Foundation survey of 3,801 students, 47% of college students have considered switching majors because of concerns about AI’s impact on the job market. These results vary significantly by demographic and field of study:

• Degree Level: 42% of students pursuing a Bachelor's degree vs. 56% of students pursuing an Associate's degree. 
• Gender: 60% of men and 38% of women have considered changing their major. 
• Academic Major: 70% of students enrolled in technology degree programs considered switching majors, compared with 34% in healthcare programs.

According to the NACE 2026 Job Outlook Spring Update, more than a third of entry-level jobs require AI skills.

Knowledge workers are at greatest risk of having their jobs usurped by AI, which suggests that white-collar jobs might be affected the most. This is a reversal of historical trends, where manufacturing jobs were previously more likely to be displaced by robots. But, even some blue-collar jobs are at risk. 

Impact On White Collar Jobs

The white-collar jobs that are most likely to be displaced by AI include desk jobs like data entry, transactional data analysis, paralegal work, copywriting, content generation, PR, marketing, accounting, bookkeeping, call centers and customer service. Entry-level computer science jobs will also be affected, since AI can now write, debug and test code. Graphic design may be affected by AI image generators. 

White-collar jobs that require empathy, ethical reasoning and working in unpredictable environments, such as high-touch patient care, will not be affected. This included nursing, occupational therapy, physical therapy, teachers, social workers and doctors. People who work in the real world, such as construction management, probably won’t be affected. 

One might think that mathematicians and theoretical physicists would not be affected. But, an advanced OpenAI model just discovered a counterexample to an 80-year-old conjecture in combinatorial geometry by Paul Erdős. ChatGPT not only solved the problem, but also developed sophisticated mathematical machinery in the process. 

Impact On Blue Collar Jobs

Blue-collar jobs are less likely to be impacted by AI, since many blue-collar jobs involve physically interacting with the real world and require physical dexterity and an unpredictable environment. 

Among blue-collar jobs, manufacturing, assembly, warehouse, logistics and long-haul trucking are most likely to be displaced. These jobs involve routine, process-heavy work. 

Skilled trades, such as electricians, plumbers, HVAC technicians and elevator repairmen, are least likely to be displaced, as are construction, gardening and landscaping.

However, it's important for prospective students to realize that while trades have earning potential earlier, many tradesmen cannot continue working into their 60s due to physical limitations. You may need to financially plan for a shorter career than white collar jobs.

Impact On Remote Work

However, the challenges in finding early career jobs in these fields might not be entirely AI’s fault. Many of these desk jobs do not require the worker to come into an office. The availability of remote workers in these fields means that employers are not limited to potential employees who live nearby or who are willing to relocate. That expands the talent pool, allowing employers to fill the jobs using more seasoned workers. 

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that remote work was the reason for two-thirds (64%) of unemployment among recent college graduates. 

Bottom Line

AI is reshaping which college degrees lead to stable careers, with routine desk work (data entry, paralegal work, entry-level coding, customer service) facing the greatest risk, while jobs requiring empathy, physical dexterity, or unpredictable environments remain largely insulated.

But AI isn't the whole story: the New York Fed found remote work accounts for 64% of unemployment among recent graduates, since employers can fill desk jobs with experienced workers anywhere.

For students choosing a major, the safest paths pair durable human skills (patient care, teaching, skilled trades, construction) with the AI fluency that more than a third of entry-level jobs now require.

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